Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. They writes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses something to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
