It was two months ago that Morgan Rogers was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused as Unai Emery berated him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. At that point, as the club endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained whether his displays were a symptom or the source for the team's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, however, the touchline reaction was far more favourable. As the England international swept in his second to reinstate the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician tore off his winter coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club marched on to a 10th successive win and after failing to win any of their first six fixtures, now sit just three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Challengers?
This is an exceptionally difficult proposition to address. History, the traditional standing of the club, suggests not. Furthermore, their performances haven't been completely commanding in many games, despite the fact the victories have stacked up.
According to statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the team registered an xG significantly higher than the opposition. For a team that have strung together ten consecutive victories, Villa appear curiously susceptible – yet right now the margins are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy appears to be to trade blows with an opponent before hoping their star man to rescue them with two precise efforts. This was the case away to Leeds, it happened in London, and again when facing United.
His opener stemmed from a superb shot, arced just inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, Manchester United had more efforts and more direct attempts. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge they have to face as the season progresses. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot maintain drilling his shots into the net's top corner indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is another reality where, rather than luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures may yet find their top level.
- The centre-forward might resume scoring again.
- The attacking talent might become the force he was in Germany.
- The defensive duo are set to return from injury, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the seeds of a title challenge, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Savoring the Moment
But then, this was unforeseen. Few believed the team would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And certainly earlier this season, few could imagine Rogers by the end of the year would be leading a title charge while establishing himself as a vital England player.
This remarkable period must be cherished exactly since it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner faced the home supporters after the match orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are rare in football and must be appreciated.
